bitcoin Editable UML Class Diagram Template on Creately

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

Why Bitcoin is Superior to Gold

There is a constant war being fought between goldbugs, like Peter Schiff, and Bitcoin enthusiasts so I decided to make an outline, with links, comparing and contrasting gold and Bitcoin. I made this in November of 2019 (thus the information therein is based on figures from that time) but, being scatter brained, neglected to post this for the Bitcoin community to see. The yardsticks I used to compare the two assets included the following: shipping/transactions costs, storage costs, censorship factor, settlement time, stock to flow, blockchain vs clearing house, validation, etc. I will also touch on Roosevelt's gold confiscation executive order in 1933, transporting gold during the Spanish Civil War in 1936, and the hypothetical cost for Venezuela to repatriate its gold more recently.
I will provide a brief summary first then follow that with the outline I made. This information can be used as a tool for the Bitcoin community to combat some of the silly rhetoric coming from goldbugs such as Peter Schiff and James Rickards. I would like to make it clear, however, that I am not against gold and think that it performed its role as money very well in a technologically inferior era, namely Victorian times but I think Bitcoin performs the functions of money better than gold does in the current environment.
I have been looking to make a contribution to the Bitcoin community and I hope this is a useful and educational tool for everyone who reads this.
Summary:
Shipping/transaction costs: 100 ounces of gold could be shipped for 315 dollars; the comparable dollar value in Bitcoin could be sent for 35 dollars using a non-segwit address. Using historical precendent, it would cost an estimated $32,997,989 to transport $1 billion in gold using the 3.3% fee that the Soviets charged the Spaniards in 1936; a $1 billion Bitcoin transaction moved for $690 last year by comparison. Please note that the only historic example we can provide for moving enormous sums of gold was when the government of Spain transported gold to Moscow during the Spanish Civil War in 1936. More information on this topic will be found in the notes section.
Storage costs: 100 ounces of gold would require $451 per year to custody while the equivalent value of Bitcoin in dollar terms could be stored for the cost of a Ledger Nano S, $59.99. $1 billion USD value of gold would cost $2,900,000 per year while an Armory set up that is more secure would run you the cost of a laptop, $200-300.
Censorship factor: Gold must pass through a 3rd party whenever it is shipped, whether for a transaction or for personal transportation. Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed when crossing international borders. The key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult. $46,000 of gold was seized in India despite the smugglers hiding it in their rectums.
Settlement time: Shipping gold based on 100 ounces takes anywhere from 3-10 days while Bitcoin transactions clear in roughly 10 minutes depending on network congestion and fee size.
Historic confiscation: Franklin Roosevelt confiscated and debased the paper value of gold in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. Since gold is physical in nature and value dense, it is often stored in custodial vaults like banks and so forth which act as a honeypot for rapacious governments.
Stock to flow: Plan B's stock to flow model has become a favorite on twitter. Stock to flow measures the relationship between the total stock of an asset against the amount that is produced in a given year. Currently gold still has the highest value at 62 while Bitcoin sits at 50 in 2nd place. Bitcoin will overtake gold in 2024 after the next halving.
Blockchain vs clearing house: gold payments historically passed through a 3rd party (clearinghouse) in order to be validated while Bitcoin transactions can be self validated through the use of a node.
Key Takeaway from above- Bitcoin is vastly superior to gold in terms of cost, speed, and censorship resistance. One could theoretically carry around an enormous sum of Bitcoin on a cold card while the equivalent dollar value of gold would require a wheelbarrow...and create an enormous target on the back of the transporter. With the exception of the stock to flow ratio (which will flip in Bitcoin's favor soon), Bitcoin is superior to gold by all metrics covered.
Notes:
Shipping/transaction costs
Gold
100 oz = 155,500. 45 x 7 = $315 to ship 100 oz gold.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/2547831-how-much-does-it-cost-to-ship-silver-and-gold
https://www.coininvest.com/en/shipping-prices/
211 tonnes Venezuela; 3.3% of $10.5 billion = 346,478,880 or 32,997,989/billion usd
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ (counter party risk; maduro; quotes from article)
Bitcoin
18 bitcoin equivalent value; 35 USD with legacy address
https://blockexplorer.com/
https://bitcoinfees.info/
1 billion; $690 dollars
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/someone-moved-1-billion-in-a-single-bitcoin-transaction/
Storage costs
Gold
.29% annually; https://sdbullion.com/gold-silver-storage
100 oz – $451/year
$1 billion USD value – $2,900,000/year
Bitcoin
Ledger Nano S - $59.00 (for less bitcoin)
https://shop.ledger.com/products/ledger-nano-s/transparent?flow_country=USA&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3ILV5O-Z5wIVTtbACh1zTAwqEAQYASABEgJ5SPD_BwE
Armory - $200-300 cost of laptop for setup
https://www.bitcoinarmory.com/
Censorship factor (must pass through 3rd party)
Varies by country
Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed
Key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult
$46,000 seized in India
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/indian-airport-stops-29-passengers-smuggling-gold-in-their-rectums
Settlement time
Gold
For 100 oz transaction by USPS 3-10 days (must pass through 3rd party)
Bitcoin
Roughly 10 minutes to be included in next block
Historic confiscation-roosevelt 1933
Executive Order 6102 (forced spending, fed could ban cash, go through and get quotes)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
“The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse”
Stock to flow; https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 (explain what it is and use charts in article)
Gold; SF of 62
Bitcoin; SF of 25 but will double to 50 after May (and to 100 in four years)
Blockchain vs clearing house
Transactions can be validated by running a full node vs. third party settlement
Validation
Gold; https://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/cost-to-assay.6732/
(Read some responses)
Bitcoin
Cost of electricity to run a full node
Breaking down Venezuela conundrum; http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/
“The last (and only) known case of this kind of quantity of gold being transported across state lines took place almost exactly 75 years ago, in 1936, when the government of Spain removed 560 tons of gold from Madrid to Moscow as the armies of Francisco Franco approached. Most of the gold was exchanged for Russian weaponry, with the Soviet Union keeping 2.1% of the funds in the form of commissions and brokerage, and an additional 1.2% in the form of transport, deposit, melting, and refining expenses.”
“Venezuela would need to transport the gold in several trips, traders said, since the high value of gold means it would be impossible to insure a single aircraft carrying 211 tonnes. It could take about 40 shipments to move the gold back to Caracas, traders estimated. “It’s going to be quite a task. Logistically, I’m not sure if the central bank realises the magnitude of the task ahead of them,” said one senior gold banker.”
“So maybe Chávez intends to take matters into his own hands, and just sail the booty back to Venezuela on one of his own naval ships. Again, the theft risk is obvious — seamen can be greedy too — and this time there would be no insurance. Chávez is pretty crazy, but I don’t think he’d risk $12 billion that way.”
“Which leaves one final alternative. Gold is fungible, and people are actually willing to pay a premium to buy gold which is sitting in the Bank of England’s ultra-secure vaults. So why bother transporting that gold at all? Venezuela could enter into an intercontinental repo transaction, where it sells its gold in the Bank of England to some counterparty, and then promises to buy it all back at a modest discount, on condition that it’s physically delivered to the Venezuelan central bank in Caracas. It would then be up to the counterparty to work out how to get 211 tons of gold to Caracas by a certain date. That gold could be sourced anywhere in the world, and transported in any conceivable manner — being much less predictable and transparent, those shipments would also be much harder to hijack. How much of a discount would a counterparty require to enter into this kind of transaction? Much more than 3.3%, is my guess. And again, it’s not entirely clear who would even be willing to entertain the idea. Glencore, perhaps?”
“But here’s one last idea: why doesn’t Chávez crowdsource the problem? He could simply open a gold window at the Banco Central de Venezuela, where anybody at all could deliver standard gold bars. In return, the central bank would transfer to that person an equal number of gold bars in the custody of the Bank of England, plus a modest bounty of say 2% — that’s over $15,000 per 400-ounce bar, at current rates. It would take a little while, but eventually the gold would start trickling in: if you’re willing to pay a constant premium of 2% over the market price for a good, you can be sure that the good in question will ultimately find its way to your door. And the 2% cost of acquiring all that gold would surely be much lower than the cost of insuring and shipping it from England. It would be an elegant market-based solution to an artificial and ideologically-driven problem; I daresay Chávez might even chuckle at the irony of it. He’d just need to watch out for a rise in Andean banditry, as thieves tried to steal the bars on their disparate journeys into Venezuela.”
submitted by cornish_roots to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots

OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar.

Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone.

It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c.

As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon.

TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome.

DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
submitted by Rezuwrecked_ to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Mine Digital's Q3 Report, 2020

Orginal post: https://minedigital.exchange/the-byzantine-times/mine-digital-q3-report/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=new_visitors&utm_term=quarterly

Data

There has been a lot of talk recently over deflation vs inflation and which phenomenon is going to emerge.
The traditional path of inflation is that it first shows up in soft commodities then energy.
Indeed, the data for Q3 shows inflation, with soft commodities up from mid single digits all the way to 40% higher of the quarter (with the exception of Orange Juice and Oats which were marginally lower).
Although energy is yet to show signs of that inflation, with significant overcapacity in oil suppressing prices (especially with the lack of air travel with the coronavirus), natural gas is higher by almost 46% over the quarter — obviously a significant amount.
While this is a result of the initial response to coronavirus stimulus from March onwards, there is now a threat of deflation emerging — however further policy response is expected imminently.

US Election

With the US election underway we saw the first presidential debate recently. The event was slow with Joe Biden performing better than expected — by not being a disaster — and President Trumps strategy of freestyle, interruption and flow being handled well with superior tactics.
Those tactics include the promise of a return of technocratic stability to the governance of the country — an approach complementary to unofficial policy supporting the corporate funded, professionally organised riots of 2020.
There was a swing towards Biden in gambling books, with about an 8% improvement in odds given to a Democrat win.
If Democrats do win, we expect that the policy mechanism of the US Government will include the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy to include an infrastructure spend and a continuation of the trend in monetary policy
However if Republicans win, we expect that the policy mechanism of the US Government will include the expansion of fiscal and monetary policy to include an infrastructure spend and a continuation of the trend in monetary policy.
This delusion of choice in the United States creates an image similar to China with both countries now having essentially a centrally planned economy at the highest level, both developed a mass surveillance program, have media synchronised to political objectives controlling the window of discourse, and with heavy politically influence from what amounts to an aristocracy.
One major difference is that while China has been taking on debt at a record pace in 2020, the American fiscal stimulus has been held up in the democratic process. Between the fake trade-deal (China never having any intention of completing it), Coronavirus and political fandangaling in the US, China has stolen 2020 from the USA, giving some much needed time to develop strategy and tactical positioning before the Thucydides showdown emerges later down the track — in whatever form it does.
The broader battle of de-centralisation vs centralisation will be important in the competition between the two powers and something that digital assets, the ethos and philosophy behind the space will become more important in creating competitive advantages in macro-strategy of all kinds.

Australian Policy

Now that we have seen Australian house prices down for 5 months in a row there are hints of a dead-cat bounce in the Australian property market. With restricted access to Chinese investors as well as poor sentiment in the conditions of the year the Australian government is expected to intervene in the property market in some way later this year or early next.
A federal budget is being delivered Tuesday the 6th October which has been described as a ‘jobs budget’. This budget is expected to have a $200 billion deficit with Australian national debt edging towards $1 trillion. $140 billion of stimulus is expected over the next four years with net migration negative for the first time since the 1940's.
There is specific infrastructure and manufacturing expenditure as well as a continuation of JobSeeker payments in which the government is in a bind between encouraging re-entry to the workforce and providing a gentle landing for the unemployed adjusting to the boosted payments. Housing is likely to be one area where surprises would emerge, given Australia’s dependency on residential construction and broader housing prices.
Some specific areas of interest are $1.5 billion to manufacturing and $7.5 billion of spending in infrastructure projects covering all states and territories.
Whether this will be enough to avoid recession in a global slowdown remains to be seen. Recessions gather momentum slowly with employment decreasing only gradually before accelerated layoffs take hold.
Despite this outlook Australia is likely to remain a benefactor of global government policies where monetary policy has been taken as far as it can go in many places and fiscal policy is expected to replace it. There is upto $2.2 trillion of fiscal expenditure in the US expected, along with other fiscal expenditure that would improve the price of commodities. We have already seen this effect in China this year with their record increases in debt on the iron ore price.

Digital Assets

In the third quarter of 2020 we saw Decentralised Finance projects stage a bubble of their own.
This gold-rush became so competitive at its peak that a project had been unnannounced, unreleased and in testing but was funded with $15mil of assets staked before it had a public name.
Now in the late stages of this phenomenon we are likely to see many lessons learnt, some impressive winning stories and some disastrous losses.
And the output of all of this chaos in defi includes projects that create a new aspect to the digital asset ecosystem as well as testing new products and game theory.
Leading projects include yearn.finance, Synthetix, Uniswap, Compound, Ren and Aave. Some notable game-theory has been developed to bolt onto the Ampleforth tokenomics in Yam and Based amongst others.

Ethereum

One of the key takeaways of the de-fi boom was the inability of Ethereum to handle transactions with costs per transaction skyrocketing. In addition to this there has been statements made by Vitalik to temper expectations in the full release of Ethereum 2.0. However the comments also include a clear direction for the asset, a focus on rollups, plasma and state channel with upto 4000 TPS (transactions per second)’ and upto 100,000 TPS in the full release of Ethereum 2.0.

Bitcoin

Although it has traded higher over the time-frame, bitcoin has not done a great deal in Q3. With a major announcement from Microstrategy investing their entire treasury into Bitcoin ($425 million USD) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($4.4 billion USD) holding about 2.2% of Bitcoins total market cap and reports from other institutional players such as OSL there is significant interest in the asset that is not translating smoothly into higher prices.
Originally published at https://minedigital.exchange on October 5, 2020. Visit the original link for a more in-depth report including charts.
submitted by Uncle_Chester2020 to Mine_Digital_Exchange [link] [comments]

Syscoin Platform’s Great Reddit Scaling Bake-off Proposal

Syscoin Platform’s Great Reddit Scaling Bake-off Proposal

https://preview.redd.it/rqt2dldyg8e51.jpg?width=1044&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=777ae9d4fbbb54c3540682b72700fc4ba3de0a44
We are excited to participate and present Syscoin Platform's ideal characteristics and capabilities towards a well-rounded Reddit Community Points solution!
Our scaling solution for Reddit Community Points involves 2-way peg interoperability with Ethereum. This will provide a scalable token layer built specifically for speed and high volumes of simple value transfers at a very low cost, while providing sovereign ownership and onchain finality.
Token transfers scale by taking advantage of a globally sorting mempool that provides for probabilistically secure assumptions of “as good as settled”. The opportunity here for token receivers is to have an app-layer interactivity on the speed/security tradeoff (99.9999% assurance within 10 seconds). We call this Z-DAG, and it achieves high-throughput across a mesh network topology presently composed of about 2,000 geographically dispersed full-nodes. Similar to Bitcoin, however, these nodes are incentivized to run full-nodes for the benefit of network security, through a bonded validator scheme. These nodes do not participate in the consensus of transactions or block validation any differently than other nodes and therefore do not degrade the security model of Bitcoin’s validate first then trust, across every node. Each token transfer settles on-chain. The protocol follows Bitcoin core policies so it has adequate code coverage and protocol hardening to be qualified as production quality software. It shares a significant portion of Bitcoin’s own hashpower through merged-mining.
This platform as a whole can serve token microtransactions, larger settlements, and store-of-value in an ideal fashion, providing probabilistic scalability whilst remaining decentralized according to Bitcoin design. It is accessible to ERC-20 via a permissionless and trust-minimized bridge that works in both directions. The bridge and token platform are currently available on the Syscoin mainnet. This has been gaining recent attention for use by loyalty point programs and stablecoins such as Binance USD.

Solutions

Syscoin Foundation identified a few paths for Reddit to leverage this infrastructure, each with trade-offs. The first provides the most cost-savings and scaling benefits at some sacrifice of token autonomy. The second offers more preservation of autonomy with a more narrow scope of cost savings than the first option, but savings even so. The third introduces more complexity than the previous two yet provides the most overall benefits. We consider the third as most viable as it enables Reddit to benefit even while retaining existing smart contract functionality. We will focus on the third option, and include the first two for good measure.
  1. Distribution, burns and user-to-user transfers of Reddit Points are entirely carried out on the Syscoin network. This full-on approach to utilizing the Syscoin network provides the most scalability and transaction cost benefits of these scenarios. The tradeoff here is distribution and subscription handling likely migrating away from smart contracts into the application layer.
  2. The Reddit Community Points ecosystem can continue to use existing smart contracts as they are used today on the Ethereum mainchain. Users migrate a portion of their tokens to Syscoin, the scaling network, to gain much lower fees, scalability, and a proven base layer, without sacrificing sovereign ownership. They would use Syscoin for user-to-user transfers. Tips redeemable in ten seconds or less, a high-throughput relay network, and onchain settlement at a block target of 60 seconds.
  3. Integration between Matic Network and Syscoin Platform - similar to Syscoin’s current integration with Ethereum - will provide Reddit Community Points with EVM scalability (including the Memberships ERC777 operator) on the Matic side, and performant simple value transfers, robust decentralized security, and sovereign store-of-value on the Syscoin side. It’s “the best of both worlds”. The trade-off is more complex interoperability.

Syscoin + Matic Integration

Matic and Blockchain Foundry Inc, the public company formed by the founders of Syscoin, recently entered a partnership for joint research and business development initiatives. This is ideal for all parties as Matic Network and Syscoin Platform provide complementary utility. Syscoin offers characteristics for sovereign ownership and security based on Bitcoin’s time-tested model, and shares a significant portion of Bitcoin’s own hashpower. Syscoin’s focus is on secure and scalable simple value transfers, trust-minimized interoperability, and opt-in regulatory compliance for tokenized assets rather than scalability for smart contract execution. On the other hand, Matic Network can provide scalable EVM for smart contract execution. Reddit Community Points can benefit from both.
Syscoin + Matic integration is actively being explored by both teams, as it is helpful to Reddit, Ethereum, and the industry as a whole.

Proving Performance & Cost Savings

Our POC focuses on 100,000 on-chain settlements of token transfers on the Syscoin Core blockchain. Transfers and burns perform equally with Syscoin. For POCs related to smart contracts (subscriptions, etc), refer to the Matic Network proposal.
On-chain settlement of 100k transactions was accomplished within roughly twelve minutes, well-exceeding Reddit’s expectation of five days. This was performed using six full-nodes operating on compute-optimized AWS c4.2xlarge instances which were geographically distributed (Virginia, London, Sao Paulo Brazil, Oregon, Singapore, Germany). A higher quantity of settlements could be reached within the same time-frame with more broadcasting nodes involved, or using hosts with more resources for faster execution of the process.
Addresses used: 100,014
The demonstration was executed using this tool. The results can be seen in the following blocks:
612722: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/6d47796d043bb4c508d29123e6ae81b051f5e0aaef849f253c8f3a6942a022ce
612723: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/8e2077f743461b90f80b4bef502f564933a8e04de97972901f3d65cfadcf1faf
612724: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/205436d25b1b499fce44c29567c5c807beaca915b83cc9f3c35b0d76dbb11f6e
612725: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/776d1b1a0f90f655a6bbdf559ff5072459cbdc5682d7615ff4b78c00babdc237
612726: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/de4df0994253742a1ac8ac9eec8d2a8c8b0a6d72c53d6f3caa29bb6c171b0a6b
612727: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/e5e167c52a9decb313fbaadf49a5e34cb490f8084f642a850385476d4ef10d70
612728: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/ab64d989edc71890e7b5b8491c20e9a27520dc45a5f7c776d3dae79057f59fe7
612729: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/5e8b7ecd0e36f99d07e4ea6e135fc952bf7ec30164ab6f4d1e98b0f2d405df6d
612730: https://sys1.bcfn.ca/block/d395df3d31dde60bbb0bece6bd5b358297da878f0beb96be389e5f0e043580a3
It is important to note that this POC is not focused on Z-DAG. The performance of Z-DAG has been benchmarked within realistic network conditions: Whiteblock’s audit is publicly available. Network latency tests showed an average TPS around 15k with burst capacity up to 61k. Zero-latency control group exhibited ~150k TPS. Mainnet testing of the Z-DAG network is achievable and will require further coordination and additional resources.
Even further optimizations are expected in the upcoming Syscoin Core release which will implement a UTXO model for our token layer bringing further efficiency as well as open the door to additional scaling technology currently under research by our team and academic partners. At present our token layer is account-based, similar to Ethereum. Opt-in compliance structures will also be introduced soon which will offer some positive performance characteristics as well. It makes the most sense to implement these optimizations before performing another benchmark for Z-DAG, especially on the mainnet considering the resources required to stress-test this network.

Cost Savings

Total cost for these 100k transactions: $0.63 USD
See the live fee comparison for savings estimation between transactions on Ethereum and Syscoin. Below is a snapshot at time of writing:
ETH price: $318.55 ETH gas price: 55.00 Gwei ($0.37)
Syscoin price: $0.11
Snapshot of live fee comparison chart
Z-DAG provides a more efficient fee-market. A typical Z-DAG transaction costs 0.0000582 SYS. Tokens can be safely redeemed/re-spent within seconds or allowed to settle on-chain beforehand. The costs should remain about this low for microtransactions.
Syscoin will achieve further reduction of fees and even greater scalability with offchain payment channels for assets, with Z-DAG as a resilience fallback. New payment channel technology is one of the topics under research by the Syscoin development team with our academic partners at TU Delft. In line with the calculation in the Lightning Networks white paper, payment channels using assets with Syscoin Core will bring theoretical capacity for each person on Earth (7.8 billion) to have five on-chain transactions per year, per person, without requiring anyone to enter a fee market (aka “wait for a block”). This exceeds the minimum LN expectation of two transactions per person, per year; one to exist on-chain and one to settle aggregated value.

Tools, Infrastructure & Documentation

Syscoin Bridge

Mainnet Demonstration of Syscoin Bridge with the Basic Attention Token ERC-20
A two-way blockchain interoperability system that uses Simple Payment Verification to enable:
  • Any Standard ERC-20 token to be moved from Ethereum to the Syscoin blockchain as a Syscoin Platform Token (SPT), and back to Ethereum
  • Any SPT to be moved from Syscoin to the Ethereum blockchain as an ERC-20 token, and back to Syscoin

Benefits

  • Permissionless
  • No counterparties involved
  • No trading mechanisms involved
  • No third-party liquidity providers required
  • Cross-chain Fractional Supply - 2-way peg - Token supply maintained globally
  • ERC-20s gain vastly improved transactionality with the Syscoin Token Platform, along with the security of bitcoin-core-compliant PoW.
  • SPTs gain access to all the tooling, applications and capabilities of Ethereum for ERC-20, including smart contracts.
https://preview.redd.it/l8t2m8ldh8e51.png?width=1180&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0a955a0181746dc79aff718bd0bf607d3c3aa23
https://preview.redd.it/26htnxzfh8e51.png?width=1180&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0383d3c2ee836c9f60b57eca35542e9545f741d

Source code

https://github.com/syscoin/?q=sysethereum
Main Subprojects

API

Tools to simplify using Syscoin Bridge as a service with dapps and wallets will be released some time after implementation of Syscoin Core 4.2. These will be based upon the same processes which are automated in the current live Sysethereum Dapp that is functioning with the Syscoin mainnet.

Documentation

Syscoin Bridge & How it Works (description and process flow)
Superblock Validation Battles
HOWTO: Provision the Bridge for your ERC-20
HOWTO: Setup an Agent
Developer & User Diligence

Trade-off

The Syscoin Ethereum Bridge is secured by Agent nodes participating in a decentralized and incentivized model that involves roles of Superblock challengers and submitters. This model is open to participation. The benefits here are trust-minimization, permissionless-ness, and potentially less legal/regulatory red-tape than interop mechanisms that involve liquidity providers and/or trading mechanisms.
The trade-off is that due to the decentralized nature there are cross-chain settlement times of one hour to cross from Ethereum to Syscoin, and three hours to cross from Syscoin to Ethereum. We are exploring ways to reduce this time while maintaining decentralization via zkp. Even so, an “instant bridge” experience could be provided by means of a third-party liquidity mechanism. That option exists but is not required for bridge functionality today. Typically bridges are used with batch value, not with high frequencies of smaller values, and generally it is advantageous to keep some value on both chains for maximum availability of utility. Even so, the cross-chain settlement time is good to mention here.

Cost

Ethereum -> Syscoin: Matic or Ethereum transaction fee for bridge contract interaction, negligible Syscoin transaction fee for minting tokens
Syscoin -> Ethereum: Negligible Syscoin transaction fee for burning tokens, 0.01% transaction fee paid to Bridge Agent in the form of the ERC-20, Matic or Ethereum transaction fee for contract interaction.

Z-DAG

Zero-Confirmation Directed Acyclic Graph is an instant settlement protocol that is used as a complementary system to proof-of-work (PoW) in the confirmation of Syscoin service transactions. In essence, a Z-DAG is simply a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where validating nodes verify the sequential ordering of transactions that are received in their memory pools. Z-DAG is used by the validating nodes across the network to ensure that there is absolute consensus on the ordering of transactions and no balances are overflowed (no double-spends).

Benefits

  • Unique fee-market that is more efficient for microtransaction redemption and settlement
  • Uses decentralized means to enable tokens with value transfer scalability that is comparable or exceeds that of credit card networks
  • Provides high throughput and secure fulfillment even if blocks are full
  • Probabilistic and interactive
  • 99.9999% security assurance within 10 seconds
  • Can serve payment channels as a resilience fallback that is faster and lower-cost than falling-back directly to a blockchain
  • Each Z-DAG transaction also settles onchain through Syscoin Core at 60-second block target using SHA-256 Proof of Work consensus
https://preview.redd.it/pgbx84jih8e51.png?width=1614&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f631d42a33dc698365eb8dd184b6d442def6640

Source code

https://github.com/syscoin/syscoin

API

Syscoin-js provides tooling for all Syscoin Core RPCs including interactivity with Z-DAG.

Documentation

Z-DAG White Paper
Useful read: An in-depth Z-DAG discussion between Syscoin Core developer Jag Sidhu and Brave Software Research Engineer Gonçalo Pestana

Trade-off

Z-DAG enables the ideal speed/security tradeoff to be determined per use-case in the application layer. It minimizes the sacrifice required to accept and redeem fast transfers/payments while providing more-than-ample security for microtransactions. This is supported on the premise that a Reddit user receiving points does need security yet generally doesn’t want nor need to wait for the same level of security as a nation-state settling an international trade debt. In any case, each Z-DAG transaction settles onchain at a block target of 60 seconds.

Syscoin Specs

Syscoin 3.0 White Paper
(4.0 white paper is pending. For improved scalability and less blockchain bloat, some features of v3 no longer exist in current v4: Specifically Marketplace Offers, Aliases, Escrow, Certificates, Pruning, Encrypted Messaging)
  • 16MB block bandwidth per minute assuming segwit witness carrying transactions, and transactions ~200 bytes on average
  • SHA256 merge mined with Bitcoin
  • UTXO asset layer, with base Syscoin layer sharing identical security policies as Bitcoin Core
  • Z-DAG on asset layer, bridge to Ethereum on asset layer
  • On-chain scaling with prospect of enabling enterprise grade reliable trustless payment processing with on/offchain hybrid solution
  • Focus only on Simple Value Transfers. MVP of blockchain consensus footprint is balances and ownership of them. Everything else can reduce data availability in exchange for scale (Ethereum 2.0 model). We leave that to other designs, we focus on transfers.
  • Future integrations of MAST/Taproot to get more complex value transfers without trading off trustlessness or decentralization.
  • Zero-knowledge Proofs are a cryptographic new frontier. We are dabbling here to generalize the concept of bridging and also verify the state of a chain efficiently. We also apply it in our Digital Identity projects at Blockchain Foundry (a publicly traded company which develops Syscoin softwares for clients). We are also looking to integrate privacy preserving payment channels for off-chain payments through zkSNARK hub & spoke design which does not suffer from the HTLC attack vectors evident on LN. Much of the issues plaguing Lightning Network can be resolved using a zkSNARK design whilst also providing the ability to do a multi-asset payment channel system. Currently we found a showstopper attack (American Call Option) on LN if we were to use multiple-assets. This would not exist in a system such as this.

Wallets

Web3 and mobile wallets are under active development by Blockchain Foundry Inc as WebAssembly applications and expected for release not long after mainnet deployment of Syscoin Core 4.2. Both of these will be multi-coin wallets that support Syscoin, SPTs, Ethereum, and ERC-20 tokens. The Web3 wallet will provide functionality similar to Metamask.
Syscoin Platform and tokens are already integrated with Blockbook. Custom hardware wallet support currently exists via ElectrumSys. First-class HW wallet integration through apps such as Ledger Live will exist after 4.2.
Current supported wallets
Syscoin Spark Desktop
Syscoin-Qt

Explorers

Mainnet: https://sys1.bcfn.ca (Blockbook)
Testnet: https://explorer-testnet.blockchainfoundry.co

Thank you for close consideration of our proposal. We look forward to feedback, and to working with the Reddit community to implement an ideal solution using Syscoin Platform!

submitted by sidhujag to ethereum [link] [comments]

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.

Demand for U.S. Dollars

Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.

https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6

https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.

https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.

Source: Bloomberg
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.

The Rise of Crypto Dollars

Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.

https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.

Institutional Developments

In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.

https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.

Future Opportunities

There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
Thank you.

Reference:
[1] How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
[2] The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
[3] Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
[4] Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
[5] Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
[6] Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
[7] McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
[8] Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
[9] Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
[10] Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
[11] Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
[12] The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
[13] Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
[14] Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
[15] New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
[16] Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
[17] Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
[18] Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
[19] Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
[20] Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]

Ely Gold Royalties Bottoming Out

http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/archive/activitynotices/20200922145519/

Just bought Ely Gold Royalties (ELYGF) at $0.8975 today. Didn't even plan on it. I was going through a list of gold and silver stocks and Ely Gold on the charts was pretty low on the stochastics and money flow for daily and weekly.
See the daily chart
See the weekly chart
In my next video I'll explain in detail why I bought and sold my latest transactions over the past two weeks.
As predicted silver and Bitcoin are falling. Although I see a few up days for silver but the down trend will continue for a couple of months. As for Bitcoin I see a down turn whether slow or fast down to $8,5000.00
Be sure to check out my
Youtube channel
Twitter
Trading History
Newsletter archives are located at http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/list/activitynotices/
submitted by ApisBullTrading to u/ApisBullTrading [link] [comments]

MCS | DEFI Cryptocurrencies, Is It Okay To Buy Now?

MCS | DEFI Cryptocurrencies, Is It Okay To Buy Now?
\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

https://preview.redd.it/c010ci3c0qh51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=08675d9ecc4a7cc7dbe676e7608971d1f4947970
#Be_a_Trader!
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

https://preview.redd.it/o5jyp0qc0qh51.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=10741381bdd9fb60e85f9f987cb3e174a1b355bc
Currently, DEFI is gathering great interest in the cryptocurrency market. The biggest trend in the cryptocurrency market in 2020 is without doubt DEFI. MCS traders who have never heard of DEFI, or traders who have heard of DEFI a few times but don't know what it exactly is, will have a hard understanding the heat of DEFI in the current cryptocurrency market. The level of heat in the DEFI market can be seen with the fact that CoinMarketCap has opened a separate category for DEFI.
CoinMarketCap DEFI Cryptocurrency List : https://coinmarketcap.com/defi/

https://preview.redd.it/892e3ind0qh51.png?width=2344&format=png&auto=webp&s=2747360453b3355c4c5184bb8f50e50fa8aae888
The chart above shows the price of the latest cryptocurrency Chainlink for the last week. Chainlink is a cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization among DEFI cryptocurrencies. It has demonstrated an increase of 70% in a week from about $10 a week ago to about $17 now. Thanks to this rise, Chainlink is also ranked 5th in the total cryptocurrency market cap.

🎯 So What Is This DEFI Thing That Trends?

"DEFI = Decentralized Finance"
DEFI stands for decentralized decentralized finance, and finance here refers to a system that uses cryptocurrency. It is a system that allows you to receive a loan with cryptocurrency as collateral or to make a cryptocurrency loan with real economic collaterals. Furthermore, the lending system, POS, and DPOS that receive interest which allows staking of cryptocurrencies also belong to DEFI. This illustrates how wide the industry scope is.

🎯 Ethereum Network Transaction Fee Surpasses $2M


https://preview.redd.it/seplkaee0qh51.png?width=789&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e3da6a719ef4b58356f7e96ac15673d939f57dc
Above is an image of crypocurrencies listed in the order of the sum network fees incurred by each blockchain network within 24 hours. Bitcoin has a network fee of about $900,000 for 24 hours, while Ethereum has a network fee of $2M, showing tremendous traffic. It is estimated that this is due to the effect of Uniswap, which allows you to easily trade DEFI coins. This is where you can see how many cryptocurrency traders buy and sell DEFI coins.

🎯 DISCOVER THE NEXT DEFI

The rise of the globally popular DEFI cryptocurrencies may continue the heat for the time being, but traders who experienced the bitcoin bull market in 2017 can easily predict that these DEFI cryptocurrencies will burst someday. I also knew about DEFI, but I am not trading DEFI cryptocurrencies as there are uncertainties about DEFI's system. While seeing the horrific price increase of DEFI cryptocurrencies such as Chainlink, I often thought jumping in once, but decided to find NEXT DEFI.
Some experts have already diagnosed that the DEFI cryptocurrency market is in a bubble, and are saying that DEFI on the Ethereum blockchain is unreasonable because it requires paying too much network fees. Blockchain is a feature that eliminates the intermediaries to remove unreasonable fees but now, DEFI cryptocurrency traders are trading against $2M network fees per day. Here, you can infer what the NEXT DEFI will be. For the NEXT DEFI, I think that a blockchain platform that can connect DEFI cryptocurrencies easily without paying ridiculous network fees will take the place of NEXT DEFI.

🎯 If You Have Decided To Invest In DEFI

The ultimate responsibility of investing in cryptocurrency lies with the trader themselves, and I cannot say that you should not trade. But one certain aspect is, even with these DEFI cryptocurrencies, a bear market will start someday. When Bitcoin first exceeded $10,000 in 2017, all cryptocurrencies said, "Wow!! That's great!! Bitcoin will change the world!!!" and "Bitcoin will break at least $100,000." However Bitcoin stopped its rally at about $20,000, and the Ice Age came in 2018. If you decide to invest in DEFI right now, I recommend that you don't just imagine a golden future, and we encourage you to trade with risk management with the thought that a bear market may begin at any time.

🎯 In The End, Bitcoin Will Show A Tremendous Rise

At the time of the bitcoin bull-run in 2017, there were actually not so many things you could do with Bitcoin. At best, it was used for payment and remittance purposes, and some projects hard fork bitcoin to introduce it to their service platforms, but the time until the blockchain confirmation of about 10 minutes was difficult to apply to real use cases. On the other hand, at the time, Ethereum could easily create smart contracts and create tokens. Thanks to this, a huge number of cryptocurrency projects have conducted ICOs, and to participate in the ICO, cryptocurrency traders purchased Ethereum, paid Ethereum network fees, and generated tremendous traffic to the Ethereum network. Therefore, as the price of Ethereum soared, the price of Bitcoin, the leader of the cryptocurrency, also skyrocketed. I think it is making a very similar appearance now. At the time, an astronomical amount of money flowed into the cryptocurrency market to participate in the Ethereum-based ICOs, eventually making the current all-time high of Bitcoin, and the current situation is the same as DEFI, and astronomical funds are flowing into the cryptocurrency market. I have no doubt that these funds will eventually flock to Bitcoin, leading to an uptrend rally to break down the huge barrier of about $19,000 in Bitcoin price, the all-time high.
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.
\Please note that this article is to share the thoughts of Hedgehog by re-establishing the current cryptocurrency market while watching the video of a bitcoin YouTuber Spunky.*
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Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

One of The Easiest Ways to Get Bitcoin NOW! For Beginners.

Hi, Friends. Here is what I did to get bitcoin fast. *Please note this is not the most private way*. You may need a BTC to your currency converter for convenience.
Go to CashApp on your mobile device and purchase bitcoin after going through their initial verification process. Then, on your MAIN DEVICE download a light bitcoin wallet (good for beginners) and from the MD (main device) wallet hit Request Bitcoin (or whatever it is titled) to generate an address and/or a QR Code. From your phone, send bitcoin (whatever amount) and scan the QR Code or input the address from the MD Wallet. This will generate the amount you are trying to send.
Now, the transaction is going through the blockchain. You can check the transaction as it flows through the blockchain here: https://blockstream.info/. Usually a link will generate so you can check from the wallet. CashApp doesn't charge you anything to transfer to another wallet.
You should be alerted by CashApp when the transaction is confirmed through the blockchain.
Boom you have bitcoin in your MD Wallet.
Here you can check the charts: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/
submitted by jeremyhunt1995 to HowToBuyBitcoin [link] [comments]

Huge update to Cryptophyl - the SLP token exchange

Hi there,
We've just released a big update to cryptophyl.com. The complete overhaul includes the addition of new features, a mobile-friendly trading interface and many design improvements. On top of this, we've just seen our biggest month yet of SLP token trading: almost $1M USD over April.

What's new?
Dark theme – We’ve introduced a dark theme which recolours the exchange interface so you can trade indoors without worrying about your eyes. The most requested feature we’ve had, you asked, and we delivered.
Charts – We've added OHLC candle charts to the exchange so you can view price and volume data of all token trading since Cryptophyl launched last August. You can toggle between different periods and set the candle interval.
Mobile friendly trading – We’ve revamped the mobile and desktop trading experience to a modern and responsive web application so you can trade comfortably on the move.
Design improvements – We've refreshed the Cryptophyl logo, colours and typography, as well as redesigning the interface to maximise screen size, to provide a fresh user experience.
Data availability – We've collected the most important trading and price information and have made it readily available from the dashboard – the core of the product. You can start trading, depositing and withdrawing with just a single click from here.
API Keys – You can now generate API keys for programmatic trading directly on the platform. With lucrative arbitrage and market making opportunities existing in this nascent market, there is no better time than now to get started (view API documentation or create API Keys).

Record trading volume
In April we saw $900,000 USD worth of tokens traded over the month. The biggest markets were:

  1. HonestCoin (USDH) - regulatory compliant 1:1 Backed USD stablecoin built on Bitcoin Cash = fast, cheap and stable border-less payments. We offer both BCH and BTC pairs. (Great explainer video why it's a nice alternative to USDT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEiO3mwDwPQ)
  2. Drop Token (DROP) - Cryptophyl's native exchange token which you can earn just for trading and gives you perks and features on the exchange.
  3. Spice Token (SPICE) - a fun appreciation token used for tipping on social media, one of the first and most adopted SLP tokens.

What are SLP tokens?
SLP is an emerging standard for issuing tokens on Bitcoin Cash. This means any token transactions are as scalable, fast and cheap as Bitcoin Cash . You can learn more about SLP tokens and how to quickly create your own token here: http://simpleledger.cash/

What's next for us?
We're working to release Detoken - a trustless token exchange which allows you to buy, sell and trade tokens whilst always being in control of your private key! This means there is no centralised point of failure and you never have to trust us with your coins and tokens. The exchange will be open source. We're making it easy for wallets such as bitcoin.com to integrate Detoken into their product flow and we think it's going to be huge for the SLP token ecosystem!

Thanks,
Semyon, Founder and CEO, Cryptophyl.com
submitted by voltaire-semyon to btc [link] [comments]

One of The Easiest Ways to Get Bitcoin NOW! For Beginners.

Hi, Friends. Here is what I did to get bitcoin fast. *Please note this is not the most private way*. You may need a BTC to your currency converter for convenience.
Go to CashApp on your mobile device and purchase bitcoin after going through their initial verification process. Then, on your MAIN DEVICE download a light bitcoin wallet (good for beginners) and from the MD (main device) wallet hit Request Bitcoin (or whatever it is titled) to generate an address and/or a QR Code. From your phone, send bitcoin (whatever amount) and scan the QR Code or input the address from the MD Wallet. This will generate the amount you are trying to send.
Now, the transaction is going through the blockchain. You can check the transaction as it flows through the blockchain here: https://blockstream.info/. Usually a link will generate so you can check from the wallet. CashApp doesn't charge you anything to transfer to another wallet.
You should be alerted by CashApp when the transaction is confirmed through the blockchain.
Boom you have bitcoin in your MD Wallet.
Here you can check the charts: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/
submitted by jeremyhunt1995 to BitcoinBeginners [link] [comments]

Our Network Issue #21

Our Network Issue #21

Insight 1 - Market-Realised Gradient

The Decred blockchain has a consistent baseload of demand for block-space, a result of the PoS ticket system and, more recently, on-chain CoinJoin privacy transactions. As such, the Realised Price metric differs in interpretation to Bitcoin. A strong conviction Decred holder actually has a regular and frequent on-chain signature moving DCR as opposed to the equivalent of long periods of dormancy for Bitcoin.
The Realised Price tends to follow the spot price more closely, however lags behind the day-to-day fluctuations in off-chain price sentiment. The chart below presents an experimental metric that takes the 28-day gradient of the Market Cap and Realised Cap, and produces an oscillator from their difference (purple). This tool distills times where off-chain price momentum bias flips before the on-chain response as DCR is bound in tickets and takes time to transact. Where the oscillator crosses the zero level, it often precedes a shift in price momentum in the direction of the flip.\
https://preview.redd.it/6bu8nqznt3y41.png?width=1296&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd1226fab2e792ab72f95cc6ab8047c4c60f9b56

Insight 2 - NVT and RVT Ratio

As noted, Decred has a consistent transaction demand which also shows up as reliable NVT and RVT signals. These metrics take the ratio between network valuation (market cap or realised cap) and the adjusted daily transaction value flowing through the chain, all denominated in USD. The chart below presents the NVT and RVT both in 28-day and 90-day moving average format with sound agreement in trend and magnitude between all.
During periods of bullish sentiment, we can observe low NVT|RVT ratios indicating that the chain is settling a substantial value relative to its network valuation, and vice-versa indicates bearish sentiment. Of particular interest is the period of strong demand for on-chain settlement since Aug 2019 at which point the CoinJoin privacy mix server came live. This provides valuable feedback for the community and developers regarding actual demand for the mixing service, and also gives miners a basis for future fee market expectations.
https://preview.redd.it/w954rgnqt3y41.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=f86b365055caa125beaa5dfec7067a2ee5bb0e09

Insight 3 - Cumulative Transaction Volumes

Digging into transaction demand further, the area chart below shows the cumulative DCR settled on-chain through protocol history, divided into regular transactions (orange), ticket purchases (green) and CoinJoin mixes (red). The line charts to the right axis presents the daily transaction volume in DCR for ticket purchases and CoinJoins.
It can be seen that the gradient of the area plot has steepened since the privacy mix service went live, confirming increased demand for block-space. There has been a steady uptick in DCR flowing through the anonymity set with around 110k DCR mined in CoinJoin transactions per day. This represents around 0.96% of the total circulating DCR supply in CoinJoins, and is substantial when compared to the 192k DCR that are mined into tickets daily (1.67% of circ. supply).
https://preview.redd.it/y57bo6xrt3y41.png?width=1329&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bb4815052cd074ef06b33cc88c6d3f068c383b0

Insight 4 - Decred Treasury Flows

The Decred Treasury underpins the self-sovereign development of the protocol, and its accumulated value is subject to the market's pricing of DCR. To date, the treasury has spent a total of $7.625M bootstraping the network from genesis to now when pricing each outgoing transaction on the day of the spend. This represents around one third of the incoming DCR so far and 16% of the total DCR inflows that will occur via the block subsidy ending in year 2140.
Based on a current DCR coin price of $14/DCR, the Treasury is capitalized with enough USD value to build another Decred (assuming $7.625M build cost) and can repeat that metric for each $12 uplift in DCR price given the current Treasury balance of 636.3k DCR.
https://preview.redd.it/v914ebdst3y41.png?width=1339&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b6ee00a258f2a62be102b60ff3873c0417b99d1

Insight 5 - Treasury Vote Power

Finally, an interesting metric to gauge stakeholder governance power is to look at how much Treasury value is governed by each ticket in the PoS pool. The chart below presents the Treasury balance divided by the count of tickets in the pool (red), showing that each ticket commands decision making power of around 15.5 DCR. If we divided this by the purchase price of a ticket denominated in DCR (blue), governance power typically represents around 11% of the ticket value. Given tickets vote on average every 28 days, this means governance power on an annualised basis is equivalent to 143% of a typical ticket in value.
https://preview.redd.it/lq1s5azst3y41.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ffb7fd567b77eabe44d5ca3e26f0e271f87baa6
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]

Upex.io invitaion code for 10% Trading fee disount

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submitted by kamleshbisht to referralcodes [link] [comments]

Our Network Issue 5 (Decred Round 4)

Our Network Issue 5 (Decred Round 4)
Our Network Newsletter Issue #15 (Decreds fourth appearance) is released, check it out here and below. https://ournetwork.substack.com/p/our-network-issue-15

Insight 1 - Stock to Flow Model

The past month of price action in the cryptocurrency markets has been extreme, with Decred price action being no exception. This week we look at a number of key metrics which have reached extreme values, often associated with the formation of price bottoms, reflexivity, and mean reversion.
The first metric is the Stock-to-Flow model which was developed by the author. This model considers a log-log regression fit between Market Cap and the Stock-to-flow ratio of the Decred coin supply. The S2F Multiple is also shown which functions as an oscillator, indicating when network valuation has become oveundervalued relative to the S2F 'fair value' model. Following the price drop on 12/Mar, the DCR S2F multiple has entered the historical low zone last seen in Jan 2017.
https://preview.redd.it/7o6dzb47r5r41.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8b2f077ffe090dfa3746b2b514c0db63dcd91ee

Insight 2 - Stock-to-Flow Residuals

The next chart shows the statistical distance between the Decred Market Cap and the predicted S2F model valuation, measured in standard deviations. For reference, an equivalent S2F model for Bitcoin is shown, with some interesting similarities in the fractals playing out in Decred's price discovery.
It can be seen for both networks, that as network value approaches ~2x standard deviations from the prediction, price tends to snap back towards the mean. For Bitcoin, this generally coincides with halving events, a shock to S2F value and scarcity. For Decred, this is more closely associated with oversold conditions since the smooth issuance curve is less variable than Bitcoin's.
https://preview.redd.it/1httuil6r5r41.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0da25cc47b7969f6fbfed9f9376a13d0c43002

Insight 3 - 142-day Ticket Sum

An on-chain metric developed by u/permabullnino is the 142-day sum of all USD value bound in Decred tickets. DCR coins bound in tickets are indicative of strong demand for holding DCR long term. This metric (red line) has shown to act similar to an upper bound Bollinger Band as resistance during price discovery.
By taking Fibonacci multiples (23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%) of the 142-day ticket sum, additional trading ranges and boundaries have been identified. In particular, the 23.6% Fibonacci multiple (green line) has provided lower bound support throughout bull and bear cycles. In the 12/Mar market sell-off, price pierced below this level before rapidly bouncing back into the range.
https://preview.redd.it/oigufn86r5r41.png?width=1388&format=png&auto=webp&s=5988ef2953cf40d3c39d8d441af9a1eb4355bd0b

Insight 4 - Puell Multiple

Decred ASIC miners have endured very challenging market conditions after ASIC hardware was first released in Jan 2018, at the peak of the alt-coin market cycle. Given miners are long term thinkers and investors, the Puell Multiple provides insight into whether income streams are profitable or not and the level of stress in the hash-power network.
The Puell Multiple takes the ratio of daily PoW USD income to its 365day average. This provides a view of today's income relative to the past year. Similar to the metrics shown above, the Puell Multiple is approaching an extreme value commonly associated with the proverbial event where 'miners put the bottom in'.
https://preview.redd.it/m1l3lct5r5r41.png?width=1303&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1143baa59722d8e8e9805d17bb6ebf06f8a63ee

Insight 5 - Decred DEX First Atomic Swap

The Decred DEX is currently under development and is aiming to provide trustless exchange between crypto-assets via atomic swap technology. On Wednesday this week, Decred DEX server client successfully coordinated its first trustless exchange between DCR and BTC on test net.
The DEX swapped 42 DCR for 0.42 BTC with an output from bitcoin-core testnet below showing successful receipt of the coins. Full transaction details of the atomic swap are found here for those interested in the inner workings (https://gist.github.com/chappjc/6c5bc6d9244e02249b867e8fe76e4762).
https://preview.redd.it/sb32fll5r5r41.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2277c81d6993872c1e3a3e52b9d5e80c044ac18
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]

Decred Foundations - an hour of updates at Consensus Distributed - Tuesday May 12 - 1330 EST

Decred has an hour-long slot (along with many other projects) at Consensus Distributed, 1330-1430 NYC time on Tuesday May 12th. Event link: https://next.brella.io/events/consensusdistributed/schedule/118434
To attend the event and watch live it seems (unfortunately) necessary to register on brella.io, even to read the event description. I am pasting it below.
Videos will be available on the coindesk website afterwards, and an extended edition of Checkmate's segment will be made available on Youtube.
Construct - Building the Decred Ecosystem
In this segment, Richard Red checks in with the developers who are leading on some of Decred's most exciting sub-projects.
Luke Powell will give an update on Politeia, which is the basis for the Decred proposals site and contractor management system.
Matheus Degiovanni will give us the latest on the Decred Lightning Network, catching up with Bitcoin’s lnd development and scoping out the areas where Decred’s LN can go that Bitcoin’s cannot.
We'll be catching up with Jon Chappelow (chappjc) and Brian Stafford (buck) who lead development on dcrdex and dcrdata.
dcrdex is software for an atomic swap based decentralized exchange with no trading fees and no token that anyone can set up and run a server for, and in this session, the lead developers explain what that’s all about, and give an update on progress ahead of the imminent pre-alpha test.
dcrdata is a block explorer that provides incredible depth of information about the Decred chain, including a variety of specialized overviews and charts related to Decred’s voting systems. Dcrdata has been expanding to cover additional data sources, integrating market data, and adding features like an attack cost estimator which allows configuration of PoW and PoS parameters to model the likelihood of success in real-time.
Buck will also give an update on TinyDecred, the python toolset that was his personal project until it was adopted by the Decred stakeholders last year.
Trade Secrets - Decred On-chain Analytics with Checkmate
Checkmate gives a whistle-stop tour of 5 key indicators for monitoring the health of the Decred ecosystem and conviction of stakeholders. The presentation covers the history of the Decred chain through the lens of:
Changelog - 365 Decred Days
Decred co-founder and lead project organizer Jake Yocom-Piatt will deliver a presentation covering the highlights of the last year.
Jake will review the consensus rules changes that have been approved and activated by Decred stakeholders over the last year, which have served to better support the Lightning Network and Simplified Payment Verification.
The presentation will also cover the adoption of these improvements in the Decrediton GUI wallet and mobile wallets, bringing new levels of security and privacy to the latter. The initial privacy tooling release and its uptake will also be considered.
There will also be a review of the year's Treasury spending, efforts to develop the consensus changes to decentralize Treasury spending, and the integration of the Contractor Management System (CMS) with the Politeia proposals platform.
The presentation will also look ahead to the future, with the DCR DEX coming online soon and some more consensus rule change proposals in the pipeline.
Following the 15 minute presentation, there will be a live 10 minute Q&A session with Lucas Nuzzi of Coinmetrics
submitted by Richard-Red to decred [link] [comments]

Predictions for the future of cryptocurrencies

It was in the year 2017, cryptocurrencies skyrocketed to the next level. But, the future of Cryptocurrency is still getting plenty of predictions every moment. People from different domains have started looking for these predictions. In December 2017, Bitcoin broke the trading charts by surging up to $20k, and became the most worthy cryptocurrency to the world.
Even though Cryptocurrencies will impact the future — the regulations will keep getting tighter. Countries like United States, United Kingdom, Australia have accepted Cryptocurrencies. In future, there are chances that other countries will come forward and accept Cryptocurrencies. We are all hoping that countries like – Mexico, Thailand, and South Africa will take the necessary steps to make crypto legal and adopt the Blockchain. But, what do cryptocurrencies hold for us in the next decade? Here are the 10 fabulous predictions for the future of crypto’s.
Everyone will start to use Cryptocurrencies — and they may not even be aware of it.
Though it has been a decade since the arrival of Cryptocurrencies, there are people who aren’t aware of it. They make use of the traditional method of transactions to manage the money flow. In the future, businesses will start using Cryptocurrencies to pay for their services. With this, businesses will remove the middleman from various processes. And it will reduces costs and makes their services cheaper for the end user. All this will happen even when people aren’t aware of the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoins will hit $1 million.
John McAfee has predicted a very bold thought about Bitcoin hitting $1 million by the end of 2020. He believes that, crypto currencies are the most trusted ones. Once the Bitcoin takes over the global economy, the demand will increase and the traditional dollars will no longer be needed.
The owner of Snapchat, Jeremy Liew and Blockchain co-founder Peter Smith predicts that by 2030, the price will have reached $500.000.
In the future, Bitcoin will act as Remittances for many people. Lack of knowledge can make the people buy Bitcoins as a safer mode of investment similar to Gold. With smartphone transactions, half of the world will march towards non-cash transactions by the year 2030. Cryptocurrencies will replace Fiat currencies. According to Draper, one of the Crypto Enthusiast has recorded his view on the same. He says Fiat currencies will disappear as people will start marching towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. The major reason for this adoption is people believe cryptocurrencies as the reliable storages of value across country borders and political aspects.
If you consider the most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, it has reached the top 30 currencies list by passing the $10.000 hallmark. Thus, most of the experts predict Cryptocurrencies are here to stay by being an alternative for Fiat Currencies. Moreover, it is said that the total lifespan of fiat currencies will be at a maximum of five years.
Government Agencies will soon adopt Blockchain Technology.
Countries with SEC Guidelines will start adopting Cryptocurrencies for their Governments. Currently, Government agencies are maintaining a separate database. Each agency is dependent on the other for its processes. This has been a tedious process nowadays. When Blockchain comes into the picture, the distributed ledger can provide effective data management to enhance the process and make it simplified.
In the next ten years, we can expect powerful cryptocurrencies to rule the Governments and manage the cash flow in the country. Crypto enthusiasts predict Government agencies will soon start adopting this Decentralized systems for their processes. For example, the Estonian Government has already adopted Blockchain Technology called X-Road, which stores the complete credentials of all citizens.
Future of Cryptocurrencies will integrate with Internet of Things.
IoT is already here. When both these giants get combined, we can expect a fantastic future of technologies without any doubts. According to the recent report by IDC, it is expected that Blockchain Technology will join their hands with the Internet of Things soon.
The primary motto of the integration is to render a highly scalable and secure framework for communication between IoT devices. Yet another thing is Cryptocurrencies have the stability to make micro-investments for smart devices in an efficient way.
Cryptocurrency Exchanges Trading.
The Trading enthusiasts in the crypto world are marching towards cryptocurrency exchanges for trading. In the near future, more cryptocurrencies will come into existence. With the growth in the price of cryptocurrencies, users will start trading with different currencies.
As Bitcoin is the popular cryptocurrency till the date, Ripple will also emerge to be the next Bitcoin in the future years. Along with this, Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar will start to uprise their prices. As the price starts rising, it will have a great impact on crypto exchanges and the crypto world.
Banking and Financial industries will undergo disruption.
Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies have a lot to do with Banking and Financial sectors. Banks will eventually accept cryptocurrencies to reduce their complexities. Here are a few things cryptocurrency will do:
People will start opening Cryptocurrency Bank Accounts. Cryptocurrency Debit cards will become a normal thing. Instead of withdrawing money, one can buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies directly from ATM’s. Banks will be ready to offer cryptocurrency loans to suitable candidates. Cryptocurrencies will make an instant process.
Do you want to send money back to your parents living on the other side of the world? It will just require 5 seconds to send your $5000 to them with fewer transaction fees. You don’t need to wait for 3 days to fill their pockets.
In addition to the fast transactions, Blockchain Technology will bring in the feature of downloading or file transfer within seconds. Blockchain copies of games, music, videos, books will be sent to your cryptocurrency wallets at a higher speed which would eliminate today’s file transfer services.
New Cryptocurrencies will start emerging.
Though Bitcoins, Ethereum, Litecoins are ruling the world for now as they are the first Blockchain products invented. Innovations don’t stop here! Most of the new cryptocurrencies will start emerging and the future lies with them.
These cryptocurrencies will be far different from the present ones. Just imagine a cryptocurrency which can identify the individual’s reputation and lets you in investing in them! Great right? No wonder that we aren’t far away from it!
Cryptocurrencies will still be volatile.
Despite the measures to stop volatility, Cryptocurrencies will still implement the factors to eliminate it. The major factors for low volatility are regulation of the country and the markets. But when cryptocurrency trading emerges at its peak, cryptocurrencies would experience a deep feeling of relief.
submitted by anoukbonami to investment [link] [comments]

The hailstorm, the low tide, and the sinking ship (a darknet parable)

Arrrr me mateys! Splice the main-brace! It's saturday night and I've had a tot of rum or two in the local taverns. This old sea dog be a land lubber now, I'm going to tell you a sea shanty from the pirate days of old.
"There once sailed a big ship called HMS Empress. She was a sturdy liner with rich passengers and many fine shops on board. Then one day a violent hailstorm blew in, but the captain thought she had enough coal to weather the storm. But the storm blew on, and on, and the waves were high. Her passengers gradually took to the nearest life raft (a ramshackle Greek-flagged tug called the Apollo, formerly the Olympian) and the shops began to close and the coal grew low. The crew were too busy manning the buckets to serve the passengers."
"Every low tide the Empress struggled to avoid the rocks. The hailstorm blew on. The captain knew the next low tide would sink her, so the great ship was scuttled"
Don't ask me what it means, I don't know. I'm just a barnacle-hulled old sea-salt. Pay no mind to my crazed ramblings.
Anyway, on a completely unrelated note I'd like to tell you about some things I've learned on reddit today and a phenomenon called THE "SILK ROAD TIDE"
Lets take a look at a graph showing the number of confirmed bitcoin transactions on the blockchain per day, over the last year. https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year
Spikey! But the spikes have a certain regularity to them, don't they? That's the tide going in and out, exactly once a week. But what causes it?
It's caused by drug consumption on Friday night and the lack of postal service on Sunday. People think that bitcoin has gone mainstream, that it's all corporate investors now. But that transaction dip in March coinciding with Dream and Hansa marketplaces closing would suggest otherwise. Bitcoin is still very much drug-driven, causing those 52 weekly "double-sawtooth" spikes. "The Silkroad tide" is a phenomenon first seen in 2011.
It's bitcoin flowing into markets on Monday and out again on Saturday
Drug buyers purchase bitcoin from an exchange on Monday/Tuesday, order their drugs to arrive by Friday, and vendors launder it back to the same exchanges at the weekend ready for it's next exchange/DNM cycle. The bitcoin goes round and round.
What does this mean for a darknet marketplace owner?
Markets fill with bitcoin at the start of the week, but are virtually empty at the weekend. If, say, your marketplace is enduring a hailstorm of DDOS and you have to invest in a new load balancer and mirrors whilst your business is shrinking by the day, those vendor withdrawals at the weekend would bring you close to financial collapse. You try to keep going but those pesky vendors want their earnings. The less they trust you the more they want to get their bitcoin the hell away from your pretend wallets, on Saturday. You try to put them off until Monday by having "downtime" at the weekend, or (like today) you just ignore withdrawal requests altogether.
If YOU were the captain of a marketplace that was getting DDOS'ed back to the stone age, you would give everybody their bitcoin back and close (like Agora and Dream did) so you can make the necessary design changes, wouldn't you? But Dream was only able to give everybody their bitcoin back because it wasn't technically bancrupt. Do you see what I'm getting at?
There have been a few posts today complaining about vendors on Empire cancelling orders. That's because vendors sometimes want to give the appearance of still being open, but they only accept orders if they think a marketplace will survive long enough for them to get paid. They've seen it all before, again and again. We always blame law enforcement, but sometimes darknet marketplaces get put to the sword by their own vendors hint hint
As Cypress Hill said, when the ship goes down you'd better be ready.
To keep this Saturday night party atmosphere going, I'm only answering questions using oblique alagory and the medium of song. Lets have a tune to get us started! Closing-down sale wooooooooo! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKrxnvRp2as
submitted by Vendor_BBMC to darknet [link] [comments]

Nice instructions on reducing fees

Nice instructions on reducing fees submitted by MisanthropistRobot to btc [link] [comments]

Decred - Our Network #3 (27-Feb-2020)

Decred - Our Network #3 (27-Feb-2020)
The Our Network newsletter is an industry wide publication driven by community members with a focus for on-chain data and behaviour of crypto-networks. Decred is featured once a month alongside other L1 networks Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZCash and Tezos.
https://ournetwork.substack.com/about?utm_source=subscribe_email&utm_content=learn_more

Insight 1 - Tickets and PoW Issuance

Decred has three issuance paths for new coins, 60% are mined via PoW, 30% are staked by PoS and 10% allocated to the Decred Treasury. The chart below shows these issuance curves alongside the total DCR bound in tickets (Y-axis is proportion of circulating supply).
It shows a very distinct relationship between DCR in tickets (blue) and PoW issuance (red). This suggests that a majority of coins distributed by miners have been purchased by market participants and make their way off exchanges and into staking. This trend has persisted both before and after ASIC miners launched on the network and is one indicator that DCR has a reasonable and fair vote decentralisation.
Decred PoW (red), PoS (purple) and Treasury (yellow) issuance compared to DCR in ticket

Insight 2 - Privacy Update

The Decred privacy implementation has been live since late August 2019 and has been met with strong reception and usage. The system facilitates coin-join mixing using the CoinShuffle++ protocol, combined with the constant flow of DCR in the PoS ticket pool.
The supply of mixed DCR has resumed its uptrend after rolling out further stability upgrades for the mixing server allowing wider participation. The anonymity set is now over 19% of all circulating Decred UTXOs (2,113,530 DCR). Note, this counts all mixed UTXOs (incl. tickets) which have not been spent since the mix.
Total supply of DCR and current anonymity set

Insight 3 - Privacy Mixer Volume

Current volumes passing through Decred coin-joins are consistently between 50,000 and 100,000 DCR per day. At recent prices of $20, the protocol is mixing between $1 to $2 Million in value per day. On the 22-Feb, a new all time high was hit with 154,223 DCR in mixed volume, equivalent to over $3 Million.
The fee for mixing is just a standard blockchain transaction fee for users, meaning each mix can completed for a few cents.
Decred daily privacy mix volumes.

Insight 4 - The MVRV Ratio

The Decred MVRV Ratio shows the relationship between the Market Cap and the Realised Cap. Since DCR is always moving on-chain in tickets, the Realised Cap tends to act as support in Bullish markets and resistance in Bear markets.
The DCR Market Cap has recently broken above the Realised Cap and the MVRV Ratio is retesting support on the trend-line which has contained it since mid 2017. The author expects the MVRV to act as an oscillator in response to Bull/Bear cycles.
The Decred MVRV Ratio

Insight 5 - Throughput Thermometer

The Throughput Thermometer compares on-chain throughput between two assets and adjusts for outstanding supply in order to ensure an apples-to-apples comparison is made. This tool is best used to gauge macro bullishness or bearishness.
When the thermometer is trending upwards, Decred on-chain flows are increasing versus Bitcoin flows pound-for-pound, which generally is paired with an uptrend DCBTC price (and vice-versa).
The chart below shows that over the past 142 days, Decred has settled 20% more native units on-chain relative to Bitcoin when adjusted for supply - an all time high for the Decred network. Note this is influenced by both increased DCR flows and reduced BTC flows.
The Throughput Thermometer, showing relative on-chain flow between BTC and DCR over 142 days

Insight 6 - v7 Consensus Vote

Decred has just completed the v7 consensus change vote which has passed with 99.94% approval. This consensus change upgrades the Decred block headers to enhance SPV wallet security, and optimise the process for PoW miners to include PoS votes. This will lead to fewer missed tickets due to network latency and provide both stakers and miners with more reliable block reward income.
An interesting trend has developed around all consensus change votes so far whereby stake participation rate increases during the vote, and cools-off following it. After the v7 consensus vote completed, the stake participation rate dipped from 52% to 48% of circulating DCR, before bouncing back to XX%. EDIT ON THURS
DCR stake participation rate around consensus votes(note, vertical lines are time when code was added for upgrade, not start of vote itself.)
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]

Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity

Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity
Decred has caught a burst of long overdue wind today.
Below is my thesis on recent price action drivers and why I think Decred is insanely undervalued right now from an on-chain/blockchain mechanics perspective.
This is an expansion on a tweet I put out here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1190349477120552961
Fundamentally, the project is one of the most undervalued assets in the market and I believe the largest information asymmetry next to Bitcoin. The smart money know this. They have been accumulating. Looking at the volume of DCR moving on-chain, we can see a significant amount of DCR moving in 2019 at the current support range. We know that DCR is always on the move due to tickets so when we see high volume nodes like this, it supports the notion of actual accumulation in addition to the usual transaction flow. We have seen similar growth in the median and mean transaction sizes throughout 2019. Larger wallets, larger DCR purchases.
Update: Note how the 2019 volume node, if just looking at USD chart could be attributed to Dec-Apr period or the recent drawdown. However looking against the BTC chart confirms that the dominant accumulation has occurred during the recent period as the BTC price probes the lows. This is what I consider a high volume zone of support characterised by a large transfer of coins (miners selling, accumulating buyers).
On-chain DCR volume profile plotted against price for BTC (black) and USD (blue)
The recent price action drawdown in my opinion is a result of Miners going too hard to fast. ASICs were introduced in early 2018 and we see an explosion in PoW Difficulty. Mining is a leveraged play for DCR and in this case is unlike what occurred for BTC in that it was almost four years until ASICs were on the scene for Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoins naturally high early inflation had time to disperse before ASICs and serious hardware investment came online. ASICs are capital intensive, not hobbyist grade meaning coins mined must necessarily become coins sold.
We can compare the insane growth in Decred mining since Jan 2018 against the market to see this on a relative scale. Mind you, this is a bullish signal. Miners are committing heavy capital to the Decred chain security. They have done their due diligence and have high conviction. That is not something to ignore.
Full tweet on this here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1177650799050133504
Normalised difficulty growth (left) since Jan 2018 and (right) 2019 Year to Date
As miners over-extend without support of price appreciation, they must sell more coins to pay bills. Eventually the weak miners have to capitulate and difficulty ribbon squeezes as mining equipment is switched off. We have seen this play out for Bitcoin where squeezing of the difficulty ribbon indicates a valuable period for accumulation. Willy Woo talks about this here https://woobull.com/introducing-the-difficulty-ribbon-the-best-times-to-buy-bitcoin/.
What happens next is that the strong miners gain an increasing share of the hashrate. Their energy is thus rewarded with more DCR and so they can sell less of their income and Hodl more. This effectively begins to constrain supply rather than the oversaturation during capitulation. Over time this leads to a reversal in price action which further perpetuates the effect.
Price of a scarce asset must appreciate with reduced circulating supply assuming demand relatively remains stable or increases.
Decred total cumulative block subsidy paid (price x block reward DCR) and Difficulty ribbon
This is actually very healthy for Decred. Coins are being distributed by miners en-mass right now, nullifying the risk of miners holding too high of a supply within the staking system leading to centralisation. I would argue that this distribution of coins is one of the most important and bullish signals long term. We know that miners stake as well and thus they are able to generate income on Hodled coins. I expect this to actually soften the degree of miner capitulation as they can turn off power whilst still generating income.
For this reason, I do not suspect we will see photos of mountains of Decred ASICs being thrown out as we saw for Bitcoin in 2018. The machines are simply put on hold until price reverses to justify power consumption. This is a valuable business feasibility case for miners and a feature of long term sustainability in the chain security.
Decred Resilience
This is where the elegance of Decred resilience steps in.
As miners slow, supply saturates, price drops.
DCR Tickets become cheaper.
Stakeholders step in and accumulation begins.
The Ticket Price hit an ATH of 140+ DCR as Stakeholders begin accumulating and commit capital to secure the chain. The Hybrid PoW/PoS system works as a counter balance. When price is in a strong uptrend, stakeholders are provided an exit to capitalise on gains as miners have a strong case for expanding their operations (PoW dominant security). During price drawdowns, miners drop out and the cheap DCR stimulates Hodlers buying and locking capital which locks down available supply from attackers. An attack would thus drive price higher and the cycle repeats.
As above, showing the total DCR locked in tickets hits an ATH as price drops due to miner capitulation
PermabullNino made the observation that Decred functions as an elegant yet robust accounting system. His discussion on block subsidies are shown in the charts above and linked here https://medium.com/@permabullnino/decred-on-chain-a-look-at-block-subsidies-6f5180932c9b.Decred has a has past, present and future cash flows distributed to those who support it most. This puts Decred security in good hands- Miners 60%- Stakeholders 30%- Builders 10%
Price is currently hovering around the PoW total subsidy paid (red line) and means miners are indeed feeling the squeeze as this is the cost basis of all DCR paid to date. Once you factor in overheads and capital costs, it makes sense we are seeing DCR supply distribution. The last time we saw price dip to this line was early in Decreds history and was followed by a rapid repricing.
We now have three mechanisms at play which will act to constrain supply
  • Miners are distributing heavily but eventually will switch to hodling as the strong miners hash share grows.
  • Stakeholder are absorbing supply en mass and locking in tickets due to relatively cheap prices
  • Inflation rate is in a state of constant reduction
Scarcity
My recent work looking at the Decred stock-to-flow model (which does exist and is convincing, contrary to what the Bitcoin maxi community may want to believe), suggests that DCR is in the oversold range. It has deviated by 1.5 standard deviations from the S2F model mean which is near identical to Bitcoin at 50% supply mined. Historically for Bitcoin and Decred, this has been an opportune period for accumulation. More on this discussion in my tweet here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1184159137564889089
Note that Decred, likely due to the smooth issuance and difference in market awareness, is less volatile than Bitcoin. The significant undervaluation of Bitcoin at 50% mined was due to the first 2012 halving where it was a very different and far smaller market. I would expect DCR to be repriced sooner rather than later as the smart money steps in having now developed Bitcoin hindsight.
Standard deviations of DCR and BTC price from the respective stock-to-flow linear regression models
As a final note, if we look at Decred and Bitcoin market valuations plotted against ratio of 21M coins issued, which normalises for coin age, we see a fascinating similarity in these coins trajectory. Bitcoin was worth $127M at 50% coins mined and Decred was worth $180M. Considering we are in a log scale market, this is practically the same. Decred has achieved this value both benefiting from market awareness and size, but also in the face of heavy (albeit generally ill-equipped) alt-coin competition, quite remarkable.
Decred and Bitcoin Market and Realised Caps and S2F models plotted against ratio of 21M coins mined
Given that Decred has such insanely strong fundamentals, has developed a convincing monetary premium in it's short life and traverses the same stock-to-flow path as Bitcoin, I believe there is immense value flying under the markets radar.
The recent price action drawdown can reasonably be attributed to miners over-extending. However based on both prior Decred behaviour and drawing comparisons to Bitcoin history, there is a strong argument to be made that supply will soon be constrained on multiple fronts and the current value is both highly undervalued and being absorbed by the smart money.
Feedback, counter-points and discussions welcome.
Cheers,
CM.
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]

A week of shock, on-chain transaction volume soared, Binance Bitcoin inflows surged 164%

From the data of the past week (03.09-03.15), with the sudden and sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin on March 12, compared with the previous week (03.02-03.08), the data on the chain has risen sharply. The main transaction volume is concentrated on Thursday On Friday, as the price of Bitcoin fluctuated gradually from $ 5,000 to $ 5,500, the activity of data on the chain also dropped significantly.
Transaction amount:
03.02-03.08: 5587116.39 BTC
03.09-03.15: 10626347.83 BTC
Increase from the previous week: 90.19%
The detailed data chart is as follows:
Actual transaction amount:
03.02-03.08: 3835451.42 BTC
03.09-03.15: 6772827.74 BTC
Increase from the previous week: 76.58%
Number of transactions:
03.02-03.08: 2350652
03.09-03.15: 2121416
Decrease from the previous week: 9.75%
The decline from this data also reflects the relatively large amount of transactions that drove the transaction amount during the slump in the currency price, which may be direct large transfers between addresses, or it may be that more transactions were collected under the active state of the exchange Large transfers.
Number of active addresses:
(The address that initiated the transaction is considered the active address)
03.02-03.08: 3686153
03.09-03.15: 3583417
Decrease from the previous week: 2.79%
From this data's turn to decline, it can also be seen that when the currency price is volatile, active addresses such as exchanges are the focus of the market and the core of the on-chain transaction pooling.
Large transfers:
(Single transaction initiated amount greater than 100BTC is considered a large amount transfer)
03.02-03.08: 6501
03.09-03.15: 14827
Increase from the previous week: 128.07%
This data validates the above judgment. The number of large transfers rose rapidly after the currency price dived, setting the largest single-day large-value transaction record since November 22 last year.
Binance exchange BTC flow data
Inflow:
03.02-03.08: 49947.69
03.09-03.15: 132045
Increase from the previous week: 164.37%
Outflow: 03.02-03.08: 48823.84
03.09-03.15: 135022.51
Increase from the previous week: 176.55%
The detailed data chart is as follows:
Net inflow:
03.02-03.08: 1623.85
03.09-03.15: -2977.51
Decrease from the previous week: 283.36%
Binance's data once again reflects the core position of the exchange address on the chain. With the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, more bitcoin moves in and out of the exchange, which also causes a large amount of bitcoin inflow and outflow rise.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

VET Will Take the #2 Position From Ethereum, and this is not a stretch of imagination, the pieces are already in place.

I responded to a user yesterday with doubts about VET's valuation, and I thought it merited a post and a bit of an expansion on the point. VET will overtake Ethereum, and here is a very small example of why.
Ethereum this year is averaging about 750k transactions a day. The vast majority of these transactions are for trading and ICOs, DAPP usage is very low. To give you a perspective on this, the top 100 Dapps running on ETH have less than 200k monthly active users, Snapchat alone has 200 million. Nothing but respect for Ethereum, but it has fundamental design problems that make adoption difficult if not impossible for a business. And this is the point, VeChain has analyzed, dissected, and solved these problems by doing what successful tech companies do, leading with the use case, not the tech.
Now, why will VET overtake ETH, and why is this effectively a certainty in my book? Let's look at one small example. I could model this properly, but I am going to keep this very simple because I want everyone to truly see the sheer scale of what we are talking about with what is coming with VeChain, we are going to be very conservative and look at just one partner China Tobacco.
China Tobacco had 172 Billion in sales last year. Let's say their average sale price was $4 per unit. This comes out to 43 billion units. Let's go cheap, let's say it cost 1 cent to track each product. 43 billion units times $.01 times 25% adoption rate, that comes out to $107MM. Let's keep it simple and ignore cyclic elements, cash flow discounts, etc. and say this is normalized on a daily basis. That is $294k a day in usage on about 120MM products a day x # of touchpoints.
Possible Touchpoints:
1) Rolling Paper Origination
2) Filter Origination
3) Tobacco Origination
4) Day of Product Creation
5) Day of Product Shipment
6) Transportation Data (counting as 1 data point, likely many)
7) Delivery Confirmation
8) Box Confirmation, Carton Confirmation, Pack Confirmation at arrival.
9) Point of sale confirmation.
That is ~1.1mm transactions per day, 9 x 120mm. At a conservative estimate of China Tobacco's product line. This means, China Tobacco alone could easily account for a million transactions a day, at these highly conservative estimations, compared to 750k total transactions a day on Ethereum . China Tobacco alone could overtake Ethereum's usage.
When I tell people about VeChain, I don't do so because I want to hype or shill a coin. I tell people about VeChain, because I have modeled them (BI EngineeData Scientist) 20 different ways, and there is absolutely no way I see them failing. I see VET as a transformational technological force about to be unleashed on the world, and I truly want people to be able to take advantage of what I believe is about to unfold.
When you hear FUD, consider asking OP to show you their math. VeChain has the most legitimate chance of taking blockchain mainstream in this entire space, in terms of usage, and I include bitcoin in this. VET is going to overtake ETH, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when. We examined one use case, from one partner, at highly conservative levels. Ask yourself, do you really think this represents their potential?
My 2 VET.
edit: Typo of $170 to $107
submitted by Mellowde to Vechain [link] [comments]

Bitcoin To 1 Million - Stock To Flow - Hedera Hashgraph ... Bitcoin Transaction Details - Part 1 - YouTube How Bitcoin Works in 5 Minutes (Technical) - YouTube Bitcoin to $90,000 Using Stock-to-Flow Ratio? Offline ... Bitcoin Transactions - from

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